Five months ago, I did an article about real estate prices and where they might go. I feel like it’s a good time to revisit the subject. First, a few words about the global economic backdrop.
Justin Lin, Chief Economist at the World Bank recently warned that a global surge in excess capacity could lead to a worldwide “deflationary downward spiral.” Ask the Japanese about deflation, and their lost decade. The economy was in the sewer for over ten years, millions lost their jobs, banks collapsed, stock prices fell by 75% and real estate tanked. (Sound familiar?) The economy has yet to recover. Speaking of which, the Bank of Japan is forecasting two years of declining prices.
Prices are also falling in the remaining economic engines, India and China. For instance, the producer price index is down about 5.9% during the last year according to the China National Bureau of Statistics. Prices in Europe are on track to fall about 1.5% this year. And of course this bleak backdrop is crowned by the collapse in US demand for imported goods.
So here’s a ten second history lesson…..the Great Depression of the 30s was a deflationary bust. The virus started with the breakdown of the financial markets in 1929/1930. The epidemic didn’t affect the average person until the 1931/1932 time frame. By 1932, 25% unemployment was common in the industrialized world as well as negative growth. This ugly picture didn’t change until the 40s. Needless to say, all asset classes got hammered.
So here we set in mid 2009. Western economies have been getting the crap kicked out of them for nearly two years, with the same MO as the Japanese debacle. What effect has this had on prices in Uruguay? The long and the short of it is not much. The average from top to bottom is mostly flat. The luxury property market might even be moving up a bit; the mid market is clearly flat or down a few pesos. Why?
My feeling is prices are flat because this is a cash market; there’s little or no debt on real estate. I know people that would like to sell and can’t, but they aren’t forced too since there’s no payment, often no insurance and taxes can be quite low. In the long run, if global deflation continues to build, there will be zero to nil demand from the outside world for property in tiny Uruguay. This will cause pricing pressure. How much? Your guess is as good as mine.
The real threat is from within and nearby. Uruguay, and its primary partner in the real estate dance, Argentina, are both due for a bust. Every eight to ten years is the pattern.
If the bust happens, not good. Prices could move down sharply. If Southern South America avoids the pain the rest of the planet is experiencing, the flat line in prices could continue for some time.
Are flat prices a bad thing? Ask the average Brit, Spaniard or American.